Private-home prices rise 1.4% as developer sales fall almost half
Resale activity barely changed in Q3 2026. For HDB upgraders, the sharper calculation is how sale proceeds, CPF refunds and borrowing fit together.
Published 25 October 2026
Singapore’s private-home prices rose 1.4% in the third quarter of 2026, even as developers sold substantially fewer homes. URA’s final figures, released on 23 October 2026, showed developer sales falling to 1,183 units, from 2,141 in the previous quarter, while resale transactions barely changed.
For an HDB owner considering a condo, that distinction matters: the quieter quarter was concentrated in new-home sales, rather than a comparable retreat across the resale market. Developers also launched fewer homes, giving buyers a smaller flow of new projects to choose from. The headline sales decline alone therefore offers an incomplete picture of the market an upgrader would enter.
Where the slowdown actually happened
Developers launched 1,140 uncompleted private homes, excluding executive condominiums, in Q3, compared with 1,783 in Q2. That is a decline of about 36%, calculated from URA’s figures. Developer sales fell more sharply, by approximately 45%, over the same period.
Resales told a different story. There were 3,801 resale transactions, against 3,813 the previous quarter—a difference of just 12 homes, or roughly 0.3%. Sub-sales, where a buyer sells a property before its completion, fell from 194 to 162 transactions.
Adding those three categories gives 5,146 transactions in Q3, against 6,148 in Q2: a calculated decline of about 16%. Developer sales accounted for 958 of the 1,002 fewer transactions. That is a more useful description than treating the developer-sales drop as the decline for the entire private-home market.
Resales consequently represented 73.9% of transactions, up from 62.0%. For an upgrader considering a completed condo, the relevant backdrop is a resale market with almost unchanged transaction numbers—not one where sales nearly halved.
Which prices rose—and what the index measures
The overall private residential price increase accelerated from 0.5% in Q2 to 1.4% in Q3. Within the non-landed segment, which includes condominiums and apartments, prices rose 1.0%, reversing a 0.1% decline in the preceding quarter.
The movement was uneven across locations. Non-landed prices in the Outside Central Region, broadly the suburban market, rose 2.3%. Prices in the Rest of Central Region were unchanged, while the Core Central Region recorded a 0.3% increase. These are regional index movements, not the change in value of every home within those areas.
For someone comparing suburban condos, the regional breakdown is more relevant than the overall index alone. Even then, it is a starting point for comparison, not a price adjustment to apply automatically to a shortlisted unit. URA’s figures describe groups of transactions rather than an individual seller’s asking price or a valuation of your intended purchase.
The lower launch count also deserves its proper place in the explanation. It accompanied the fall in developer sales, but the figures do not establish how much of that fall came from fewer buying opportunities versus buyers choosing not to proceed. Both the sales count and the launch calendar belong in the picture.
Your flat’s selling price is not your cash budget
The more personal calculation starts with the home you already own. CPF Board explains that sale proceeds must cover the outstanding housing loan and the required CPF housing refund, including the CPF savings used and their accrued interest. The flat’s headline selling price is therefore different from the cash left after the sale.
Accrued interest is the interest those CPF savings would have earned had they remained in the account. A CPF refund is not simply money lost from the household, but it should not be treated as unrestricted cash either: its subsequent use depends on the applicable CPF rules and the member’s circumstances.
Consider this illustrative worksheet, not an estimate of any reader’s proceeds. Assume a flat sells for $800,000, the outstanding loan is $250,000, the required CPF refund is $300,000, and sale costs are assumed to be $20,000. The arithmetic leaves $230,000 in cash, alongside the money refunded to CPF. The inputs are invented solely to explain the distinction; the refund framework comes from CPF Board.
| Illustrative item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Assumed selling price | $800,000 |
| Less outstanding loan | −$250,000 |
| Less required CPF refund | −$300,000 |
| Less assumed sale costs | −$20,000 |
| Illustrative cash remaining | $230,000 |
The useful next step is to replace each assumption with your own figure. In particular, use the required CPF refund rather than relying on memory of the original down payment: the refund includes accrued interest as well as the CPF principal used.
A borrowing limit is not a comfortable monthly budget
On the purchase side, MAS’s Total Debt Servicing Ratio, or TDSR, limits total monthly debt obligations to 55% of monthly income. This concerns total debt, rather than the proposed housing instalment in isolation. MAS also states that banks assess housing-loan affordability using an interest-rate floor of 4%, even when prevailing rates are lower.
As a simplified illustration, 55% of a $10,000 monthly income is $5,500. That is an illustration of the ratio—not a promised mortgage instalment or loan approval. Existing debt obligations and the bank’s assessment still matter.
For planning, it helps to keep two questions separate: “What might the lender approve?” and “What monthly payment would leave our household enough breathing room?” The first requires a lender’s assessment. The second is a household choice about spending, savings and how much uncertainty to carry.
A useful working budget therefore has separate lines for available cash, CPF funds potentially usable for the purchase, the proposed loan and a reserve you prefer not to spend. Keeping those lines visible makes it harder to mistake a large selling price for a fully funded upgrade.
Put the money on a timeline
Before choosing whether to sell first or commit to the next home first, build a dated cash-flow plan. List the expected flat-sale completion, the expected release of proceeds, each purchase payment and the proposed moving date. Ask the lender and conveyancing professional to confirm the amounts and timing rather than assuming that money expected from the sale will be available whenever the purchase needs it.
That exercise should come before treating a rising index as a deadline. It can reveal a funding gap even when the eventual sale proceeds appear sufficient—or show that a more manageable purchase price would leave the move less dependent on everything happening in the right order.
Q3’s clearest market distinction is that developer sales fell sharply while resales held almost steady. For the upgrader, the next meaningful number is more individual: the amount available, in the right form and at the right time, to complete the next purchase.
Sources
- CPF refund when selling or transferring property · CPF Board
- Oral reply to Parliamentary Question on the impact of sustained increases in US Treasury yields · Monetary Authority of Singapore
- Final third-quarter 2026 real estate statistics · Urban Redevelopment Authority